In DG ECFIN I worked as an Economic Analyst in unit G1 covering Czechia, Poland and Slovakia. My main responsibilities concerned Slovakia and Malta. I prepared official Commission macroeconomic forecasts using national accounts and high-frequency indicators, covering GDP and its components, inflation, labour markets, wages, external balances and public finances. I also organised and participated in forecast missions and worked on the European Semester, the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure, fiscal surveillance and the Recovery and Resilience Facility. A major project was the 2023 revision of Slovakia's RRP, where I developed quantitative approaches to reflect construction-cost and inflation shocks.
Macroeconomic forecasting
A central responsibility was preparing official European Commission forecasts for assigned countries. The work covered national accounts, consumption, investment, external trade, inflation, employment, unemployment, wages, the external balance and public finances. Forecasts had to be internally consistent and aligned with common EU and euro-area assumptions.
Forecast missions and stakeholder dialogue
I organised and participated in forecast missions, particularly for Slovakia and Malta. I prepared agendas, analytical questions and briefing material and held discussions with ministries, central banks, statistical offices, fiscal councils and other institutions. Information gathered during missions was incorporated into the official Commission forecast.
European Semester and MIP
I worked on continuous assessment of competitiveness, labour markets, investment, public finances and structural challenges. For Slovakia I contributed to macroeconomic-imbalance analysis covering cost competitiveness, inflation, the current account, household indebtedness, housing and other vulnerabilities relevant to the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure and In-Depth Reviews.
RRF and the 2023 Slovak revision
A major project was the 2023 revision of Slovakia's Recovery and Resilience Plan. Rapid construction-cost inflation affected the feasibility of original investment targets. I developed quantitative approaches, discussed data with Eurostat, Slovak authorities and other Commission services, and contributed to a methodology using more specific construction-cost indicators and relevant inflation projections.
Malta RRF
For Malta I worked on implementation and amendments of the Recovery and Resilience Plan, including investments and reforms in health, transport and wider economic and fiscal areas. The work included assessment of modifications justified by objective circumstances and coordination across Commission services.
Quantitative work
The role involved continuous data work alongside policy analysis: quality control, econometric analysis, scenario construction, forecasting tools and methodological development. The forecasting database contained roughly 159 variables per country.
The forecasting methodology and data work are described in more detail in Macroeconomic forecasting.