Publications
Publications and public outputs
A selection of macroeconomic forecasts, research papers and other public outputs from my work at the European Commission, ECB, ESRB and European Parliament.
European Commission — DG ECFIN
Between 2022 and 2025 I prepared official European Commission macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts and worked on economic surveillance of Member States and analytical outputs relating to the RRF.
Career context: my work in DG ECFIN →
European Economic Forecast — Summer 2022
The Commission’s summer macroeconomic forecast for the EU and its Member States. The link opens the official publication page with the report and supporting material.
European Economic Forecast — Autumn 2022
The Commission’s autumn forecast covering growth, inflation, labour markets and public finances in the Member States. The link opens the official forecast page.
European Economic Forecast — Winter 2023
An interim winter update of the EU economic outlook and principal macroeconomic indicators. The link provides the official Commission report.
European Economic Forecast — Spring 2023
The spring forecast with detailed country chapters and projections for GDP, inflation, employment and public finances. The link opens the official forecast page.
European Economic Forecast — Summer 2023
The summer interim forecast updating EU economic developments and inflation. The link opens the official Commission report.
European Economic Forecast — Autumn 2023
The autumn forecast with macroeconomic and fiscal projections for the Member States. The link opens the official publication page.
European Economic Forecast — Winter 2024
The winter interim update of European growth and inflation forecasts. The link opens the official Commission page and report.
European Economic Forecast — Spring 2024
The EU spring macroeconomic forecast with country projections and an assessment of economic risks. The link opens the official Commission document.
European Economic Forecast — Autumn 2024
The Commission’s autumn projections for growth, inflation, labour markets and public finances. The link provides the official report.
European Economic Forecast — Spring 2025
The spring forecast published shortly after the end of my time in DG ECFIN. The link opens the official forecast.
In-Depth Review 2023 — Slovakia
An in-depth review of Slovakia under the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure, covering competitiveness, inflation, external balances, household debt, housing and fiscal vulnerabilities. The link opens the official DG ECFIN publication.
In-Depth Review 2024 — Slovakia
An updated in-depth review of Slovakia under the MIP, focusing on macroeconomic risks and structural vulnerabilities. The link opens the official Commission report.
In-Depth Review 2025 — Slovakia
An in-depth analysis of Slovak macroeconomic imbalances for 2025. The link opens the official DG ECFIN publication page.
Country Report Slovakia 2023
The European Semester report on Slovakia combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and structural analysis and monitors RRF implementation. The link opens the official Commission PDF.
Country Report Slovakia 2024
The annual Slovakia Country Report assesses economic developments, public finances, investment, reforms and structural challenges. The link opens the official Commission PDF.
Country Report Slovakia 2025
The 2025 European Semester report on Slovakia assesses economic and structural challenges. The link opens the Commission’s Slovakia page where the report is available.
Alert Mechanism Report 2024
The initial screening of Member States under the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure, identifying economies requiring deeper analysis. The link opens the official publication page and report.
Slovakia RRP revision — Proposal for a Council Implementing Decision
The Commission proposal to amend the Council Implementing Decision on Slovakia’s Recovery and Resilience Plan. The link opens the formal legislative proposal in EUR-Lex.
Analysis of the Recovery and Resilience Plan of Slovakia
A detailed analysis of Slovakia’s amended recovery plan, including investment, reforms, costs and the justification for changes. The link opens the full Staff Working Document in EUR-Lex.
Analysis of the Recovery and Resilience Plan of Malta
An analysis of amendments to Malta’s recovery plan, including investment, reforms and the REPowerEU component. The link opens the full Commission Staff Working Document.
European Central Bank / ESRB
At the ECB and ESRB I contributed to research on financial stability, bank lending and systemic risks.
Career context: my work at the ECB →
Caution: do not cross! Capital buffers and lending in Covid-19 times
An ECB Working Paper on the relationship between banks’ distance from regulatory capital limits and corporate lending during the pandemic. The link opens the official PDF of Working Paper 2644.
Caution: Do Not Cross! Distance to Regulatory Capital Buffers and Corporate Lending in a Downturn
The peer-reviewed journal version of the research on capital buffers and corporate lending. The link opens the article in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
How to release capital requirements during a pandemic? Evidence from euro area banks
An ECB Working Paper comparing forms of capital relief during the pandemic and their effects on credit supply. The link opens the official PDF of Working Paper 2720.
Bank capital buffers and lending in the euro area during the pandemic
A Financial Stability Review study summarising findings from the wider research programme on bank capital buffers and lending during the pandemic. The link opens the full ECB article.
Monetary policy: the challenges ahead
A publication from the ECB colloquium in honour of Benoît Cœuré. The link opens the complete official ECB PDF.
EU banks after the crisis: sinners in the hands of angry markets
An academic article on sharp declines in European bank share prices and their relationship with bank characteristics. The link opens the publisher’s article page.
Příběh roku 2015: Česko se nadechlo. Ekonomika roste a nezaměstnanost je rekordně nízko
A Hospodářské noviny article on strong Czech economic growth in 2015, including economic commentary by Nikolas Mayer during his time at the ESRB. The link opens the newspaper archive.
European Commission — traineeship 2014–2015
During my DG ECFIN traineeship I worked on macroeconomic imbalances and econometric analysis for Sweden and the United Kingdom.
Career context: my European Commission traineeship →
Country Report Sweden 2015 — Including an In-Depth Review
The Sweden Country Report and In-Depth Review includes econometric simulations of housing-price and interest-rate shocks and their effects on GDP, consumption and residential investment. The link opens the official Staff Working Document in EUR-Lex.
Country Report United Kingdom 2015 — Including an In-Depth Review
The United Kingdom Country Report and In-Depth Review analyses macroeconomic imbalances and structural risks in the UK economy. The link opens the official Staff Working Document in EUR-Lex.
Swedish and Danish housing-market Economic Brief
A later Commission Economic Brief reuses and cites results from the 2015 Swedish interest-rate and housing-shock analysis. The link opens the official Economic Brief PDF.
European Parliament — public files
At the European Parliament I worked on economic, financial-services and budgetary legislative files. Selected public documents from these files are listed below.
Career context: my work at the European Parliament →
Digital euro — ECON report
The final ECON report on the proposed digital euro, containing the parliamentary position and legislative changes ahead of interinstitutional negotiations. The link opens the official Parliament report.
Recovery and Resilience Facility implementation report
A joint BUDG and ECON report assessing RRF implementation, milestones, payments, administrative burdens, NGEU financing and other aspects of the instrument. The link opens the final parliamentary report.
MFF 2028–2034 interim report
Parliament’s interim report on the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework and future EU budget structure. The link opens the official report.
Market Integration and Supervision Package — Settlement Finality
Legislative procedure 2025/0381(COD) on settlement finality and payment and securities-settlement infrastructure. The link opens the complete procedural history in OEIL.
Market Integration and Supervision Package — Directive
Legislative procedure 2025/0382(COD), amending UCITS, AIFMD and MiFID II, among other legislation. The link opens the documents, procedural stages and parliamentary actors in OEIL.
Market Integration and Supervision Package — Regulations
The main regulatory component of MISP, procedure 2025/0383(COD), amending financial regulations including MiFIR, EMIR and CSDR. The link opens the complete OEIL file.
Securitisation — prudential rules
Parliament’s report on amendments to CRR prudential rules for securitisation exposures. The link opens the official final report.
Securitisation — STS framework
Parliament’s report on the general securitisation framework and the simple, transparent and standardised regime. The link opens the official report.
EU budget 2026 — Parliament report
Parliament’s report on the draft annual EU budget for 2026 and allocation of resources across programmes and priorities. The link opens the official parliamentary document.
Post-2027 Fund / NRPP architecture
The legislative proposal for the post-2027 fund architecture covering cohesion, agriculture, fisheries, prosperity and security, including national and regional plans. The link opens the OEIL procedure.
EU own resources
The legislative procedure on the EU own-resources system: budget revenue and financing future obligations, including NGEU repayment. The link opens the complete OEIL file.
Economic topics through data
I also apply my experience in macroeconomic forecasting, financial stability and European economic policy to my own analysis of the Czech economy. I focus on specific economic topics, data and comparisons between Czechia and other European countries.